The outlook for lumber production and pricing in 2026 is still debated by many in the industry. 2025 saw multiple headwinds in the industry, with battling trade policy and uncertainty. Despite a near 45% import duty for Canadian product, the reported lumber prices from December 2025 is relatively low.
“Waning housing production over the course of 2025 created an environment where lumber supply was continually above demand, especially over the second half of the year,” said Jesse Wade,NAHB director of tax and trade policy analysis. “In 2026, depending on housing production, lumber prices could enter a period of volatility. Mills across North America were producing at a loss for much of 2025, creating conditions where closures and curtailments negatively impacted the supply of lumber heading into 2026.”
