11/01/2022 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY


Pending home sales fall 10.2 percent in September and 31.0 percent year-on-year

Pending home sales dropped for the fourth straight month, down 10.2% from August and 31.0% year-on-year. The Northeast PHSI descended 16.2% from last month to 64.2, a decline of 30.1% from September 2021. The Midwest index retracted 8.8% to 80.7 in September, down 26.7% from one year ago. The South PHSI faded 8.1% to 97.0 in September, a drop of 30.0% from the prior year. The West index slipped by 11.7% in September to 62.7, down 38.7% from September 2021.



September personal income keeps up with inflation, consumer spending surges again

Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September, disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.0 billion (0.6 percent).  The CPI rose 0.4 percent in September, while the personal savings rate fell to 3.1 percent.



Inflation tracker PCE price index up 0.3 percent in September and 6.2 percent year-on-year

The Fed-preferred PCE price index rose 0.3 percent in September (the same as August), and was up 6.2 percent year-on-year (also unchanged from August).  The ‘core’ rate minus food and energy rose 0.5 percent (the same as August) and was up 5.1 percent year-on-year (versus 4.9 percent in August).



Civilian compensation costs up 1.2 percent in 3Q2022 and 5.0 percent year-on-year

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2022, as wages and salaries increased 1.3 percent and benefit costs increased 1.0 percent. Year-on-year, compensation costs rose 5.0 percent as wages and salaries increased 5.1 percent and benefit costs rose 4.9 percent versus a rise of 8.2 percent in the CPI.  As a point of comparison, wages and salaries rose 4.2 percent and benefits costs rose 2.5 percent, respectively, for the 12-month period ending in September 2021.


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