11/04/2022 — MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Federal Reserve raises rates another 75 basis points, but may adjust future hikes lower

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.



Manufacturing sector index slips 0.7 points to 50.2 as companies prepare for lower demand

The October Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.2 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the 50.9 percent recorded in September, and the lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. With panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous five months, the October index reading reflects companies’ preparing for potential future lower demand.



Service sector index falls 2.3 points to 54.4 as business levels cool

In October, the Services PMI® registered 54.4 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than September’s reading of 56.7 percent. This is the lowest reading since May 2020, when the index registered 45.2 percent. Based on comments from Business Survey Committee respondents, growth rates and business levels have cooled. There are still challenges in hiring qualified workers, and due to uncertainty regarding economic conditions, some companies are holding off on backfilling open positions. Supply chain and logistical issues persist but are not as encumbering as they were earlier in the year.


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