3/3/2023 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY


Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Market Composite Index for mortgage applications fell 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. Purchase loan applications declined 6 percent and were down 44 percent year-on-year. This is the second week this index is at a 28-year low. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 74 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 8.1 percent of total applications. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.71 percent from 6.62 percent.



Case-Shiller Index fell for sixth consecutive month in December, but up 5.8 percent year-on-year

The cooling in home prices on the Case-Shiller Index that began in June 2022 continued through year end, as December marked the sixth consecutive month of declines for the National Composite Index. The National Composite declined by -0.8% in December, and now stands 4.4% below its June peak. Year-on-year, the National Composite still rose by 5.8%, but declined in San Francisco (-4.2%) and Seattle (-1.8%).



Residential construction spending edges down 0.6 percent in January, down 6.1 percent year-on-year

Construction spending during January 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,825.7 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised December estimate of $1,827.5 billion. The January figure is 5.7 percent above the January 2022 estimate of $1,726.6 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $847.4 billion in January, 0.6 percent below the revised December estimate of $852.1 billion and down 6.1 percent year-on-year.


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