5/26/2022 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Early May U.S. economic output index slips to 53.8, softest in four months

The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 53.8 in May, down from 56.0 in April, to signal a weakened rate of expansion of output across private sector firms. The rate of growth was the softest for four months, with the index now below the series long-run average of 54.8. Manufacturers and service providers signaled softer upturns in output amid elevated inflationary pressures, a further deterioration in supplier delivery times and weaker demand growth.



New home sales plummet 16.6 percent in April and 26.9 percent year-on-year

Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000, 16.6 percent below the revised March rate of 709,000 and 26.9 percent below the April 2021 estimate of 809,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2022 was $450,600, up 19.6% year-on-year.  The average sales price was $570,300, up 31.2% year-on-year. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 444,000.  This represents a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales rate, a sharp jump from 6.9 months in March and the highest timeline since May 2010.



Purchase loan applications flat from previous week, down 16 percent year-on-year

The Market Composite Index for mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans flat (and down 16 percent year-on-year) and refinance activity falling 4 percent (and down 75 percent year-on-year). The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.46 percent from 5.49 percent. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 9.4 percent of total applications.


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